 
Table 1: Historical membership growth
(Source: Church Almanac)
Year 
Membership 
1979 
4,439,000 
1980 
4,638,000 
1981 
4,936,000 
1982 
5,165,000 
1983 
5,400,000 
1984 
5,650,000 
1985 
5,920,000 
1986 
6,170,000 
1987 
6,440,000 
1988 
6,720,000 
1989 
7,300,000 
1990 
7,760,000 
1991 
8,120,000 
1992 
8,406,895 
1993 
8,696,221 
1994 
9,024,569 
1995 
9,340,898 
1996 
9,694,549 
1997 
10,070,524 
1998 
10,354,241 
1999 
10,752,986 
2000 
11,068,861 
2001 
11,394,522 
Table 2: ANOVA of regression testing for recent historical exponential growth
SUMMARY OUTPUT 

















Regression Statistics 







Multiple R 
0.5358 







R Square 
0.2871 







Adjusted R Square 
0.2515 







Standard Error 
0.0108 







Observations 
22 
















ANOVA 









Df 
SS 
MS 
F 
Significance F 



Regression 
1 
0.00094 
0.00094 
8.05511 
0.01016 



Residual 
20 
0.00234 
0.00012 





Total 
21 
0.00329 
















Coefficients 
Standard Error 
t Stat 
Pvalue 
Lower 95% 
Upper 95% 
Lower 95.0% 
Upper 95.0% 
Intercept 
0.0547 
0.0048 
11.4518 
3.092E10 
0.0448 
0.0647 
0.0448 
0.0647 
X Variable 1 
(0.0010) 
0.0004 
(2.8382) 
0.0102 
(0.0018) 
(0.0003) 
(0.0018) 
(0.0003) 
Chart 1: Regression of Historical Growth Rate
Chart 2: Growth of children in church
Chart 3: Children blessed as a percentage of new members is going down.
Table 3: ANOVA testing exponentially decaying growth rate
SUMMARY OUTPUT 
















Regression Statistics 







Multiple R 
0.6358 







R Square 
0.4043 







Adjusted R Square 
0.3745 







Standard Error 
0.2047 







Observations 
22 
















ANOVA 









df 
SS 
MS 
F 
Significance F 


Regression 
1 
0.5686 
0.5686 
13.5733 
0.0015 



Residual 
20 
0.8378 
0.0419 





Total 
21 
1.4064 
















Coefficients 
Standard Error 
t Stat 
Pvalue 
Lower 95% 
Upper 95% 
Lower 95.0% 
Upper 95.0% 
Intercept 
47.2550 
13.6908 
3.4516 
0.0025 
18.6965 
75.8134 
18.6965 
75.8134 
X Variable 1 
(0.0253) 
0.0069 
(3.6842) 
0.0015 
(0.0397) 
(0.0110) 
(0.0397) 
(0.0110) 
Chart 4: Exponentially decaying growth rate membership
projection
Chart 5: Errors in exponentially decaying growth rate model
Chart 6: Comparison of growth projections
