Charts and Tables

Table 1: Historical membership growth
(Source: Church Almanac)

Year Membership

1979

4,439,000

1980

4,638,000

1981

4,936,000

1982

5,165,000

1983

5,400,000

1984

5,650,000

1985

5,920,000

1986

6,170,000

1987

6,440,000

1988

6,720,000

1989

7,300,000

1990

7,760,000

1991

8,120,000

1992

8,406,895

1993

8,696,221

1994

9,024,569

1995

9,340,898

1996

9,694,549

1997

10,070,524

1998

10,354,241

1999

10,752,986

2000

11,068,861

2001

11,394,522

 

 

Table 2: ANOVA of regression testing for recent historical exponential growth

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.5358

R Square

0.2871

Adjusted R Square

0.2515

Standard Error

0.0108

Observations

22

ANOVA

Df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

0.00094

0.00094

8.05511

0.01016

Residual

20

0.00234

0.00012

Total

21

0.00329

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

0.0547

0.0048

11.4518

3.092E-10

0.0448

0.0647

0.0448

0.0647

X Variable 1

(0.0010)

0.0004

(2.8382)

0.0102

(0.0018)

(0.0003)

(0.0018)

(0.0003)

 

 

 

Chart 1: Regression of Historical Growth Rate

 

 

 

 

Chart 2: Growth of children in church

 

Chart 3: Children blessed as a percentage of new members is going down.

 

 

Table 3: ANOVA testing exponentially decaying growth rate

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.6358

R Square

0.4043

Adjusted R Square

0.3745

Standard Error

0.2047

Observations

22

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

0.5686

0.5686

13.5733

0.0015

Residual

20

0.8378

0.0419

Total

21

1.4064

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

47.2550

13.6908

3.4516

0.0025

18.6965

75.8134

18.6965

75.8134

X Variable 1

(0.0253)

0.0069

(3.6842)

0.0015

(0.0397)

(0.0110)

(0.0397)

(0.0110)

 

 

Chart 4: Exponentially decaying growth rate membership projection

 

 

Chart 5: Errors in exponentially decaying growth rate model

Chart 6: Comparison of growth projections

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