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Calculator Instructions
The last chapter of the Book of Mormon contains a promise to
everyone who reads it. The promise states that if you read the book
and ask God about it with a sincere heart, "real intent" and faith in
Christ, then he will tell you the book is true by the gift of the Holy
Ghost (See Moroni 10:3-5). The problem with this promise is that
if the book isn't true, then God really didn't make the promise in
the first place. The reader finds himself in a loop of circular
reasoning where the way to find out if the book is true is based upon the
premise that it is in fact true.
The way to break out of the loop without abandoning the
possibility that the promise is valid is by using Bayesian Statistical
Analysis.
The Famous Bayesian-Moroni Prayer Analysis Calculator can help you
analyze the answers to your prayers (or lack thereof) in 4 easy steps:
- Before you pray about the Book of Mormon, what are the
chances you'd give it of being true? Put this number in field one
(e,g. put zero if you are absolutely certain it is false, put 100 if you are
absolutely certain it is true, put 50 if you think that the chances of
it being true are 50-50).
- Now forget about everything except the scenario that the Book of
Mormon really is true. If the book is true and God really did
endorse Moroni's promise, what are the
chances that the results of your prayers would be what you actually
experienced? Put this number in field two. According to a straight-forward interpretation of the
promise, if you read and pray with the indicated attitude, God will make
you know that the book is true. If you followed the recipe
and didn't get that result then you will want to put a low number into
this field. If you followed the recipe and did in fact get that
result, you will want to put a 100 in.
- Now forget about everything except the scenario that the Book of
Mormon is false. Assuming the book is false and God doesn't
endorse Moroni's promise, how likely is it
that your prayers would result the way they did? Put this number
in field three. If an angel
came down and literally told you it was true, you might want to put a
low number here--that is hard to explain given the assumption that it is
false.
On the other hand, if your experience was more or less ordinary you'd want to
put a very high number here--that is what one would expect from
reading fiction.
- Now click on "Calculate Probability Church Is True!" and the Famous Bayesian-Moroni Prayer Analysis Calculator
will tell you the chances of the church being true. The number
that comes out of this should be used for your a priori beliefs
the next time you pray about the Book of Mormon.
What's the Point?
Everyone who investigates Mormonism repeatedly hears the cliché "I
know the Book of Mormon is true." Translating that phrase
into the language of this model, it means they are 100% certain that the
book is literal history. There are only two ways you can get 100%
certainty to come out of this model:
- Be 100% certain before you even study it--approach the issue with
your mind completely made up (100 in field one).
- Have an experience as a result of your prayers that would be
impossible to experience if the book were false (zero in field three).
This goes beyond having an experience that is unexplainable were it not
for the book being true--it is in the realm of things not being able to
happen. For example, if you had an intense, life-changing
spiritual experience from the book, that would not be
justification for putting a zero in three. I had an intense,
life-changing spiritual experience when I read Great Expectations
by Charles Dickens--but that doesn't mean that Pip really walked in the
marsh country. People can and do have intense feelings through
reading fiction, so even if the Book of Mormon literally knocked
the wind out of you that isn't justification to put a very low number in
field three.
Another insight that this calculator provides is that if somebody
approaches The Book of Mormon with 100% certainty that the book is
true (or false), the specific results of his or her prayers are
irrelevant--he or she will continue to believe what he or she believes
with continued surety.
The most important point of this is to emphasize that the scenario of the book being false
needs to be seriously considered in order to make an honest analysis of the
book. It also demonstrates that when somebody says they "know" the book is
true, what it really means is that they choose to believe that it is true.
Even if God personally visits somebody and tells them the Book is true, they
still must give some weight to the possibility that it may have been a
hallucination.
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